I started last week feeling that I wasn’t quite achieving the results that I was expecting from my analysis. There was a slight fear that my project wasn’t going to reach any valid conclusions at the end of my 8 weeks here, and that worried me. I spoke with both my mentors, Ron and Devin, about my concerns and they reassured me that the work I am doing is purely exploratory and so any results are a bonus. Our efforts this week have been focused on understanding how to use a forecast accuracy method known as Holt-Winter’s triple exponential smoothing (trust me, it sounds worse than it really is). The purpose of this method is to ‘smooth’ out forecasts from being widely variable to being steady over time. Using the historical data from our customers, it takes into account trends and seasonality and provides you with a forecast of what your demand or consumption might be in the next period. The mathematics behind it is pretty intense and it can be incredibly easy to make mistakes, but after applying it to a number of datasets, I feel I’m on the right track. Another part of the project has included me looking into the subject of Risk/Reward. What are the benefits of building high volume, low variability products early so as to free up capacity? What are the drawbacks? As a result of having no financial background whatsoever, Ron and I have had to schedule meetings with people over in Finance to get the low-down on how to proceed with developing a model.
On Tuesday, a colleague of mine, Andy, kindly invited me round to his house to have dinner with his family. It gave me a real insight into what the real ‘American dream’ is like. This guy has it all – a truly amazing family, a gorgeous home, and a rewarding career. What more could you ask for? It acted as a huge motivating factor for me, and made me realize just how much I want all that for myself one day. I played his son Alex, 8, at tennis on their Nintendo Wii, but was subsequently beaten - I was clearly having an off-day. After having a tour of his home, we sat and ate my first American home cooked meal, and it was delicious. Having let our dinner go down and played the kids a couple more times on the Wii, we retired to the lounge with a glass of wine to discuss music, politics, sports, and culture. Before I knew it, it was time for me to go home, and I once again expressed my utmost appreciation to Andy and his family for inviting me into their home – their hospitality was second to none.
During the week, I arranged to meet up with two of the guys I met at the baseball game for a spot of lunch at Winghouse, a famous American chain restaurant known for its ribs, burgers, and scantily clad female waitresses. Mike is now a full-time employee with Jabil after completing an internship with them last summer. Devin on the other hand, is an engineering student from the University of South Florida, and is here on an internship similar to mine. It was a great opportunity to catch-up over some good food and share our experiences.
Saturday morning saw us spend some of our hard earned cash in Tampa’s own International Mall, as it was tax-free for one weekend only. In the afternoon, we shot off to Clearwater beach for the second weekend in a row. We once again ate lunch in the beachside bar/grill, Palm Pavilion, as we loved it so much the week before. The sun was extremely strong that day, and despite applying masses of sun screen, we somehow still managed to get burnt. Sunday found us attending the senior director of Finance, Steven Thomson’s house for a BBQ/Pool party. It was cool to hang out with people outside of work and meet some new people in the process. I'm really starting to get into the swing of things out here, and to be honest, I really don't want to come home - sorry Mum. With now only three weeks left until we board that plane bound for Edinburgh, I'm just going to try and make the most of the time we have left.